Know your exposure
before the market does.
Real-time disruption probability and financial impact modeling for all 12 of the world's critical maritime chokepoints. Built for corporate risk managers, commodity traders, and hedge funds.
Live Intelligence
Global Chokepoint Monitor
12 chokepoints across 3 strategic tiers. Risk scores updated every 4 hours.
Strait of Hormuz
CRITICALTier 1Persian Gulf · 54 km navigable
Effectively closed to commercial traffic. Vessel interference incidents up 340% vs. 2024 baseline. US Navy escort operations active. War risk premium at 1.85% of hull value.
Cascading Risk Scenario:
Dual Closure — Hormuz + Bab el-Mandeb
A simultaneous closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb would be the largest single supply chain disruption event in history — affecting $1.9T in annual trade and triggering a chain reaction across all 12 monitored chokepoints. This is how it unfolds.
Simultaneous closure of Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Combined: 20% of global oil + gateway to Suez Canal severed.
Full closure — naval blockade confirmed
Full closure — Houthi escalation + Iranian naval assets
The market knows before
the data does.
Hard AIS data tells you what happened. Signal Intelligence tells you what's about to happen — by layering social sentiment, prediction market probabilities, and news velocity on top of your risk scores. Average lead time: 31 hours ahead of AIS anomalies.
A positive divergence means the market is pricing in more risk than the physical data currently shows — typically a leading indicator.
When signal scores consistently exceed the AIS baseline across multiple dimensions, it indicates the market is pricing in risk that the physical data hasn't yet confirmed. This divergence is the actionable signal.
Social sentiment across 40+ communities, prediction market probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket, and news velocity from 2,400+ sources — all 12 chokepoints, updated every 15 minutes.
The Platform
Intelligence built for
risk professionals.
Straits Risk is not a news aggregator. It is a quantitative risk intelligence platform that translates geopolitical events into financial exposure — before the market prices it in.
Real-Time Risk Scores
Proprietary disruption probability scores for all 12 chokepoints, updated every 4 hours from IMF PortWatch AIS data.
Financial Impact Modeling
Monte Carlo simulations translate transit disruptions into dollar-denominated P&L impact for your specific commodity portfolio.
Threshold Alerts
Configure custom alert thresholds. Get notified the moment a chokepoint crosses your risk tolerance — before it hits the news.
12-Strait Coverage
All three tiers of global maritime chokepoints — from Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb to Lombok and the Cape of Good Hope.
Weekly Intelligence Briefs
Analyst-grade PDF reports synthesizing geopolitical signals, transit data, and forward-looking risk scenarios.
API Access
Programmatic access to all risk scores and financial impact models. Integrate directly into your TMS, ERP, or risk platform.
Methodology
How Straits Risk works.
Built on public institutional data sources. No black boxes. Full methodology documentation available to all clients.
Data Ingestion
We ingest AIS vessel transit data from IMF PortWatch every 4 hours, alongside geopolitical event feeds, war risk premium indices, and satellite imagery signals.
Risk Scoring
Our proprietary model combines transit deviation from baseline, geopolitical tension indicators, and historical event patterns to produce a 0–100 disruption probability score.
Financial Impact
Monte Carlo simulations translate disruption probability into dollar-denominated P&L impact for your specific commodity portfolio, trade routes, and contract structures.
Intelligence Delivery
Risk scores, alerts, and financial impact models are delivered via dashboard, API, and weekly PDF intelligence briefs — in the format your team already uses.
Pricing
Straightforward pricing.
No setup fees. Billed monthly or annually. Cancel anytime.
For crypto traders, Polymarket bettors, and Hyperliquid perp traders.
- 5 Tier 1 strait risk scores
- Daily data updates
- Risk score dashboard
- Email alerts
- Signal Intelligence add-on: +$49/mo
For individual risk analysts, commodity traders, and researchers.
- All 12 strait risk scores
- 4-hour data updates
- Signal Intelligence included
- API access (5K calls/mo)
- Weekly intelligence brief
- Custom alert thresholds
- CSV & JSON export
For risk teams, hedge funds, and mid-size shipping firms.
- Everything in Analyst
- Monte Carlo P&L modeling
- Portfolio-specific impact
- Real-time data updates
- API access (50K calls/mo)
- Team seats (up to 10)
- Dedicated analyst support
- Signal Intelligence included
For banks, insurers, ILS funds, and corporate treasury teams.
- Everything in Professional
- Unlimited API access
- White-label options
- Custom risk models
- SLA guarantee
- On-site onboarding
- Signal Intelligence included
Social sentiment, Kalshi/Polymarket prediction market probabilities, and news velocity — layered on top of AIS hard data. Average 31-hour lead time on AIS anomalies.
Early Access Feedback
What our beta clients say.
"The Hormuz risk score gave us a 6-day lead on the market. We adjusted our Q2 procurement hedges before the premium spike. The ROI on the subscription was immediate."
"We've been looking for a quantitative tool that translates geopolitical events into P&L impact. Straits Risk is the first product that actually does this without requiring a PhD to interpret."
"The API integration with our TMS took less than a day. Now our risk scores update automatically in our existing dashboards. Exactly what we needed."
Get ahead of the
next disruption.
Join 47 risk professionals already on the waitlist. Early access clients receive 3 months at Analyst pricing.
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